End of Decade Issues
Vintage 2009 will be the final set of population estimates extrapolated from the 2000 Census. The estimation methodology uses annual data on births, deaths, and migration and has been modified to include information from recent American Community Survey results. However, as we get further from the 2000 Census, the estimates are more prone to error. One should be cautious in publishing disease rates calculated for recent years, particularly for smaller geographic areas and population sub-groups. In December 2010, the Census Bureau released state-level population totals from the 2010 Census. These population totals for 2010 can be compared to the population estimates for each year from 2001 to 2009. This provides an indication of how much error there might be in the population estimates for each state. Note that the magnitude and direction of the rate change is often affected more by the change in age structure of the population than the total population.
Graphs Comparing Intercensal Population Estimates to Census 2010
These graphs show trends over time for state populations from the intercensal-year estimates and compares them to the actual count from the 2010 Census. On each graph, the years between 2000 and 2010 are on the x-axis and populations are on the y-axis (in order to better show differences in the data, populations on the y-axis do not begin at zero). There are three data sources: the previous vintage 2008 intercensal year population estimates for 2000-2008, the new vintage 2009 intercensal year population estimates for 2000-2009, and the actual count from the 2010 Census.
For the United States, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Alabama, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Alaska, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Arizona, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Arkansas, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For California, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally lower than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Colorado, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Connecticut, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For DC, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally lower than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Delaware, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Florida, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Georgia, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Hawaii, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Idaho, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Illinois, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally lower than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Indiana, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Iowa, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally lower than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Kansas, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Kentucky, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Louisiana, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Maine, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Maryland, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Massachusetts, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Michigan, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Minnesota, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Mississippi, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Missouri, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Montana, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Nebraska, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Nevada, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For New Hampshire, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For New Jersey, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally lower than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For New Mexico, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For New York, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For North Carolina, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For North Dakota, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Ohio, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Oklahoma, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Oregon, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Pennsylvania, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Puerto Rico, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Rhode Island, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For South Carolina, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For South Dakota, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Tennessee, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally higher than the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Texas, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Utah, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are higher than the actual count.
For Vermont, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Virginia, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Washington, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For West Virginia, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
For Wisconsin, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are about on track with the actual count.
For Wyoming, the more recent vintage 2009 intercensal-year estimates are generally about the same as the older vintage 2008 estimates. The 2010 Census seems to indicate that the estimates are lower than the actual count.
Data Sources:
- Intercensal year population estimates
- Census 2010 state-wide totals (released 12/21/2010)
